Klein Market Summary-September 30th, 2013

Klein Market Summary

September 30th, 2013

Current Market Facts:

Technical Status

Confirmed Rally – Beginning Week 13

Other Observations

NASDAQ pauses at highs

S&P 500 and DJIA have retreated

Leadership remains robust

Feel of the Market

Short-term market focus is the debt ceiling

Important Levels on Key Indices:

Index

Support

Last Close

Resistance

Nasdaq

3700

3782

3800

Nasdaq 100

3200

3230

3249

S&P 500

1680

1692

1729

 DJIA

15000

15258

15288/15700

Market Interpretation:

The markets have paused as most leaders continue to surge.  Debt ceiling negotiations are in focus this week.  In coming weeks, earnings will return as the focus of the market.  In my opinion, the debt ceiling quibbling in Washington is a non-issue.  Neither party wants to look bad ahead of next year’s elections.  Thus, while both parties must appear to stand pat, neither will risk acting in a way that is not popular.  Thus, the action of the leading NASDAQ continues to confirm what the leading stocks are saying, that the Bull Market is still on.

Joel’s Take:

In recent years, with an unusual level of stimulus in the markets, it has often made sense to try to hold leading stocks through minor corrections.  While it is critical to follow a set of rules that are based on the way that the market and stocks actually work, it is also important to recognize what is working in the current market environment.

The Fed stimulus has stimulated higher markets with the absence of the usual emotional components that accompany market cycles.  This has made it more difficult to use market timing rules that have worked with tremendous success for many decades.

Finally:

In 2006, Keith Klein, my brother and an employee at the time, originated the idea of a periodic market review.  Shortly thereafter, the Klein Market Summary came to be.  It has been published every week since May 2006.  In this summary, we have identified many of the best market stocks at the beginning of enormous moves.  The KMS identified Research in Motion, Baidu, Intuitive Surgical, and Crocs in 2006 and 2007.  In 2009, it identified AAPL and BIDU before their enormous moves occurred.  In the past year, we have dialed in on the very best leading stocks.  I have always approached the market through a probability-based perspective when writing the market summary.  During that period, I have received overwhelming responses from readers who achieved enormous gains on their own, using the KMS as a tool.

Regrettably, today’s Klein Market Summary will be the final issue of this weekly release.  It has been a privilege and an honor to share my thoughts with you, and to interact with many of you.  I wish all of you continued investment success, and urge you to persist through the difficult endeavor of beating the markets, and taking your fate into your own hands.  While making money in stocks is not easy, it is an irreplaceable set of skills that brings an enormous amount of confidence with it.

If I had to identify the one trait that all successful investors have in common, it is that they had innumerable chances to quit, yet they persisted anyways.  I have also found it profoundly important to identify and fixate on only primary data and indicators.  I learned from Bill O’Neil the terrific depth of knowledge that can be gained by directly embarking on market research – even if it duplicates that of somebody else.  Please enjoy a prosperous fourth quarter.

Truly,

Joel T. Klein

 

  • The Klein Market Summary is a professional interpretation of the general stock market conditions that is updated on a weekly basis.  Joel T. Klein is the portfolio manager of the investment partnership Blue Diamond Capital, LP. He writes the summary using select technical and fundamental data.  The Klein Market Summary is not intended to provide investment advice of any kind, and is only provided for the entertainment of the reader.  It is typically updated Monday morning, weekly.  Please e-mail info@kleinasset.com, if you are interested in receiving this free weekly update.
  • Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.  Due to market volatility, a fund’s performance may fluctuate.  Current performance may be less than previous results.  An investment a hedge fund when redeemed, may be worth more or less than the original cost.  Information above is not a replacement for the Fund’s prospectus.  This webpage does not constitute any kind of offer or solicitation.  Additional information on investment objectives and policies is in the Fund’s prospectus.  Ask your representative for a prospectus.
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About kleinmarketforum

Klein Asset Management, LLC, formed in 2003, serves individual investors via a directional growth stock approach. When the market is in an uptrend, the firm seeks to exploit investment opportunities. When the trend is down or neutral, assets are protected. Klein Asset Management undertakes major market research projects. In many cases, these result in improved investment methods, which ultimately improve performance.

8 responses to “Klein Market Summary-September 30th, 2013”

  1. E Mallory says :

    It’s been an honor to read your weeklys Joel. Great stuff. I’ve learned and also confirmed my thoughts on the market through reading.

    Persistence indeed.

    Eric

  2. Tom says :

    Joel, You said it yourself. Successful investors don’t quit. Keep writing and I’ll keep reading and succeeding. Don’t give up writing. You will feel a void that you need to continue to help the people that began investing with you.

  3. Amin Hemani says :

    I enjoyed the talk you gave us at IBD meetup group in Clearwater Florida and impressed upon me the value of analyzing charts on a daily basis. Your commentaries have helped me focus on the condition of the market rather than my emotions. Thank you so much for helping me make a better investor/trader. Hope someday our paths will cross again.

    Amin

  4. Dexter@HCMFX.com says :

    Hi Joel,

    I am saddened that you will not publish this weekly commentary.

    I value your insights!

    Are you closing shop?

    Thanks! Dexter

  5. shaishav desai says :

    I’d really miss reading your weekly commentaries. I’m sure it has helped lot of investors and traders like me. I heard you at the Sunnyvale IBD meetup and was impressed by your approach and what you have accomplished. I’d look forward to any other way you can communicate.
    Thanks for all your effort. shaishav

  6. CANSLIM TRADER says :

    I really miss reading your write up. I learned so much on bigger picture and its perspective. Please reconsider. Thank you!!

  7. Joel says :

    I would like to thank everybody for their kind words. Last October, we opened a second investment fund. Both funds are quite demanding of my time and focus. While I enjoy writing and have gotten tremendous satisfaction in providing value for our readership, this was a decision that I made for personal reasons. I have not closed the door to eventually producing some other investment commentary, but for now, I have decided to stop.

    On another note, even as Washington won’t try to come to an agreement (yet), the debt ceiling, QE, Syria, and other headlines have really built a perfect wall of worry for the market to climb. I feel that in macro, the market is being led by new stocks, TSLA, NFLX, FB, (twitter soon to follow, maybe), and PCLN are all early stage. NFLX is mimicking AAPL and BIDU after 2008. TSLA looks like QCOM 1999 and Bethlehem 100 years ago. FB is only a few months into what is likely a multi-year move. PCLN broke 1000 after rising 50% from a year long base. With a 50 ROE, it will probably keep on trucking.

    Be disciplined, don’t buy extended obvious stocks. Bias towards liquidity because that’s where the big institutions play, and they make stocks safer by providing more potential sources of demand. Bias towards innovative, entreprenuerial opportunities that have clear competitive advantages. Bias towards products you like, and concepts you understand like CMG and AAPL. Consumer stocks. (<– that is a complete thought.) NDLS, Q, twitter, and many other recent IPO's must be watched. NDLS is being run by 2 guys that headed CMG during its explosive growth.

    Find big stocks and sit for big moves. Concentrate in leaders. Enjoy investing.

    Best,

    Joel

  8. John Purtell says :

    Thanks for all your work and thoughts in the newsletter, Joel. I have looked forward to it every week and enjoyed and benefitted. I hope you have the opportunity and inclination to restart someday.

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